Chamberlain, Caden

Title:
Lidar and FlamMap Facilitate Exploration of Fuel Accumulation and Simulated Fire in the Forests of Northern Arizona

Abstract:
High-severity fires are increasing in extent and frequency in the frequent-fire forests of the southwestern United States, demanding that land managers design and implement restoration treatments at an accelerated rate. However, the extent of at-risk forests necessitates that land managers prioritize restoration treatments in areas that, if high-severity fire occurred, would have the greatest ecological, social, and economic impacts. By improving our understanding of hazardous fuel arrangement, drivers of their accumulation, and patterns of potential crown fire, we can better inform the design and implementation of forest restoration treatments. In this study, we analyzed priority watersheds in frequent-fire forests of northern Arizona to meet the following objectives: 1) quantify and map the distribution of wildfire fuels using lidar, 2) determine the primary drivers of wildfire fuel accumulation, and 3) describe the spatial distribution and landscape patterns following simulated high severity wildfire under different weather scenarios. Results indicate a heterogeneous distribution of fuels across the landscape with pronounced hazardous fuel accumulation in major ravines, around Blue Ridge Reservoir, and at higher elevations. Slope was the primary drivers of fuel accumulation based on a chi-square test of association and a random forest test of importance. Simulated crown fire followed similar patterns as fuel accumulation, and crown fire patches increased in extent, size, and density as fire weather became more extreme. Results from this study demonstrate the utility of lidar and FlamMap software for assisting land managers in the prioritization of forest restoration treatments.

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